Macro Institute

Financial Crises | Monetary Policy | Geopolitics | Financial Market Behavior







Earth on Blue

Cutting Edge Research

The Socio-Political Theory of Financial Crises (SPTC)©

Crises are difficult to predict with the most recent and notable example being the failure of the economic profession to see the 2007-2008 Credit Crunch. Why? The quantitative approach to financial crises depends on one key assumption – the comparability of financial crises. Thus, we should ask: how comparable are crises? An important consideration is the context – social, political and institutional. Next, if financial crises are comparable to a certain extent, then we should be able to make predictions. This naturally leads one to ask: how predictable are crises? Not only did this approach fail to predict crises, but an understanding and explanation of crises was also lacking. In short, a comprehensive theory of financial crises was needed to account for context and thus improve our understanding and explanation of financial crises.This naturally leads one to ask: how predictable are crises? Not only did this approach fail to predict crises, but an understanding and explanation of crises was also lacking.

This naturally leads one to ask: how predictable are crises? Not only did this approach fail to predict crises, but an understanding and explanation of crises was also lacking. In short, a comprehensive theory of financial crises was needed to account for context and thus improve our understanding and explanation of financial crises.

The result was the development of The Socio-Political Theory of Crises. The social, political and institutional context, which is left out in quantitative approaches, was now at the core of this theory. This is a process-oriented theory with a focus on understanding and explaining crises. It is also multi-disciplinary in scope. To this end, crises proceed through four steps: Social, Trigger, Disruption and Psychological. Three case studies on financial crises were conducted to test the theory and to gain

Geopolitical Risk | Advisory

Our Geopolitical Risk Advisory provides unique insights into global geopolitical events
impact your business or financial asset valuations.

The Financial Market Global Macro Insights act are our on the spot market assessments
of financial crises and major market moving events.

Macro Insitute Logo dark
Contact

Academic | jd@macroinstitute.org
Advisory | geo@politicalriskedge.com

Address

UK: London | US: Boston